Monday, January 30, 2012

‘The Dangerous Gym Membership’?

‘The Dangerous Gym Membership’?:

By Michael F. Cannon

Here’s a poor, unsuccessful letter I sent to the editor of the Washington Post:


The dangerous gym membership” [Jan. 12] claims that in Medicare Advantage, “advertising a plan as the go-to health insurance source for marathoners could lure in a healthier subscriber base, disrupting the rest of the market place in the process.” Oh?


Does it disrupt the market for sneakers when running shops advertise themselves to marathoners? Since when does giving consumers something they want disrupt the market? That’s why markets exist.


What’s disrupting the market for seniors’ health insurance is government—in this case, Congress’ counter-productive attempt to cross-subsidize the sick via price controls that forbid carriers to consider each applicant’s risk when offering and pricing health insurance.


‘The Dangerous Gym Membership’? is a post from Cato @ Liberty - Cato Institute Blog




Friday, January 27, 2012

Sigh

Sigh: If you're annoying enough, you can get them to respond with an involuntary second sigh and get a rhythm going.

Rayman Origins confirmed for PC

Rayman Origins confirmed for PC:



Ubisoft has confirmed that Michel Ancel platformer Rayman Origins will be released for PC on March 30. Even better news for PC owners: the digital download will only require a single activation, while the retail version will not feature Ubisoft's dreaded DRM at all







http://www.rockpapershotgun.com/2012/01/26/rayman-origins-coming-to-pc-drm-free







Rock Paper Shotgun




Ubisoft has confirmed that Michel Ancel platformer Rayman Origins will be released for PC on March 30.

Even better news for PC owners: the digital download will only require a single activation, while the retail version will not feature Ubisoft's dreaded DRM at all.

read more

Placebo Again.

Placebo Again.:

Medicine is simultaneously both easy and hard. As an Infectious Disease doctor, my day can be summed up with the phrase “me find bug, me kill bug, me go home.” Sometimes it is just that simple. A lot of the time it isn’t. I may not be certain what the infection is, or even if the patient has an infection, or allergies and/or antibiotic resistance limit therapeutic options, the host has co-morbidities that limit effectiveness, and the patient has no financial resources for the needed treatment.


I am lucky, since most infections are acute, make people feel terrible, and require a relatively short course of therapy during which the patient feels better. I rarely have to worry about compliance with the treatment plan; it is the rare patient, usually a heroin user or a particularly irascible old man, who will not follow through with their antibiotic course. I do not have to worry about chronic or symptomless diseases like diabetes or hypertension or the complications of obesity where long term compliance often limit therapeutic success. Long term it is difficult for many people to stick with their therapeutic plan, much less their diet and exercise resolutions.



Infectious diseases is a job where I do not have to concern myself about placebo effects. As readers of the blog are well aware, I do not think there is any such thing as a placebo effect that has any clinically meaningful application, especially in the world of infectious diseases. Infections are usually a binary proposition: either you are infected or you are not and either I am curing you or I am not.


Still, there is more to medicine than me find bug, me kill bug, me go home. Often most of the time on a consult is spent talking with the patient: explaining what they have, why they have it, what we are going to do about it and what they can expect.


As an aside, while I ‘take a history’, as we say in the parlance of the field, patients provide a story, a narrative. Much of what the patient has to say is frequently of little importance to the medical matter at hand, and there is something about illness that lends people to philosophizing. At length. Especially at 4 o’clock in the afternoon on Friday. I hate to tell you this, but the details of your life and the philosophy of your existence are neither that interesting nor that original. You, like me, are really not that compelling. I have heard the content and what you are saying before, more times than I can count.


At one of the hospitals I go to they report metrics on patient satisfaction, and one is “My Doctor listens carefully to what I said.” We are usually around 80%, but I point out that at least 20% of the time the patient is not saying anything worth listening to. The elderly male I saw last Friday at the end of the day felt obligated to go on about his grade and high school GPA, I guess to let me know how smart he was. Such irrelevant soliloquies, at least irrelevant to making a diagnosis although they do add insight into the patient, are common. I pretended to listen with interest, looking for the right moment to interrupt, glad we are not telepathic. I am often glad we are not a telepathic species.


I suspect part of the allure of alternative medicine providers is that the dull details of my life, which are of no interest to anyone but me and (maybe) my family, are of endless interest to the fake diagnosis and treatment by the homeopath or naturopath. The patient gives us a story, we extract the small amounts of information that are relevant to the diagnosis, but do not give a narrative back in return. We give data and odds and studies. Alt med providers return a narrative and a story, incorporating the faux uniqueness of their patient. The problem with medicine, and the source of its diagnostic and therapeutic power, is that there is usually nothing whatsoever special about you, or me. Humans operate under very tight and predictable operational parameters: physiologically, emotionally, and psychologically. Human variations are usually trivial, since extreme variations are fatal. People prefer to operate under the delusion they are interesting and unique and SCAM practitioners feed into that.


I recognize that conversations with the patients are important for a variety of reasons, since the more they understand about their infection and its treatment, the better they will be able to adhere with their compliance. Or comply with their adherence. Whatever the current buzz word is for getting the patient to do what you want them to. While I think the patients attitude has nothing to do with whether I will successfully kill the MRSA on their aortic valve, being ill is difficult, and the better they cope and comply, the better will be the quality of their life during the illness.


We have four possibilities when treating an illness:



  • We can improve the pathophysiology and the patient feel better. That’s the best case scenario. It is what I strive to accomplish with my patients.

  • We can improve the pathophysiology , but the patient feels no better or feels worse. My fathers chemo for his non-Hodgkin’s lymphoma cured the tumor, but he never quite felt well after.

  • We can not improve the pathophysiology, but the patient feels better. In my world, that is mostly when patients are on hospice, but it applies to chronic pain.

  • We can fail to improve the pathophysiology and the patient feels worse. That is the worst case scenario.


I have long realized the importance of what we referred to as a resident as the supratentorial component of illness. It is a large part of being a doctor, but one of the more difficult parts since the approach differs with each patient. I do not need to individualize the antibiotics for your MRSA osteomyelitis, but I do for how I communicate about your illness. Is the patient smart? Stupid? Uneducated? Overeducated? Confused? Drugged? Depressed? Demented? Fatalistic? Unrealistic? The message needs to fit the recipient.


At the heart of the communication with patients is honesty and truthiness. I have to get a sense of who you are and then tell you what is occurring. The patient-physician relationship is based on honesty, and without honesty there can be no autonomy, the first of the on the principles of medical ethics:


Autonomy. The principle of autonomy recognizes the rights of individuals to self-determination. This is rooted in society’s respect for individuals’ ability to make informed decisions about personal matters.


Beneficence and Non-Maleficence, the other key principles, are always two and three on the list, perhaps it is always alphabetical. A patient cannot make informed decisions if they are not told the truth.


As a rule, autonomy trumps beneficence and non-maleficence. I can’t lie to you, even if it is to your benefit. No weasel words or Romneyesque evasions, but of course there are many ways to tell the truth: do I say an 80% cure rate or a 20% failure rate? Emphasize the good? Dwell on the bad? It is not what you say, but how you tell the truth that can be important, but you always have to be aware of the line and not cross it. I wonder how well other docs do, as I not infrequently get a comment from a patient that they appreciated how clear I was in my explanation of the medical situation, good, bad and indifferent. That I told it like it is.


We all can manipulate our patients in subtle ways. A classic example is sitting down when you go into a patients room. Patients will rate the time spent as longer if the doctor sits down instead of stands, even if the actual time is no different. There are other tricks (I am not certain I like that word) that can be used to enhance the therapeutic interaction. I don’t think of it as lying, but is part of being a good doctor, especially in an era when patients can be referred to (never, ever by me) as clients and consumers and it is our job to have happy customers.


Even if I thought the placebo effect existed in any meaningful way, I could never use it since at its heart it violates the prime directive of medical ethics. It is why editorials in JAMA, like Lessons From Recent Research About the Placebo Effect—From Art to Science by Howard Brody MD, PhD and Franklin G. Miller PhD , besides only presenting half the information, give me the willies.


Dr Brody is the author of The Placebo Response: How You Can Release the Body’s Inner Pharmacy for Better Health, which I have not read, but the Amazon summary says


According to Brody, the placebo phenomenon–which he pronounces mysterious and unknowable at its very heart–is when the convergence of healing signals, assigned meaning, and human expectations stimulates the body’s inner healing power. The patient’s positive mental and emotional reaction to a medical intervention releases what Brody terms the “inner pharmacy.” In other words, even though the treatment is benign, the body’s biochemical pathways are stimulated to induce healing in the same manner actual medicines do. “Could harboring hope, faith, or expectation be genuinely potent factors in the healing process?” Brody asks, “I believe they are. In fact, I see them as the heart and soul of the placebo response.


Doesn’t look like a promising start. But what is placebo?


In popular understanding, placeb is giving a sugar pill instead of a real medicine, like Doc Martin did in the episode I saw yesterday. The teenage girl wanted a larger chest and he gave her some peppermint breath mints to take once a month for a year and he pointedly never contradicted her misunderstanding as to what she was receiving. Of course the young lady instantly went from poor self esteem who was easily bullied by the other girls to aggressive young lady who verbally slapped down her bullies with new found self confidence. Of course, in keeping with the true placebo effect, no anatomy was changed. I have only seen a few Doc Martin episodes to date, but so far I have been impressed with accuracy of the medicine.


Placebo is also used in clinical trials, an inert treatment that is the surrogate for all the other confounding factors in patient treatments that can determine results: natural history of disease, physician and patient bias, regression to the mean, etc. Interactions with health care providers can have effects on patients, especially for subjective symptoms. As studies and their meta-analysis have consistently demonstrated, placebo in clinical medicine does not alter the underlying pathophysiology, the objective endpoints, only the subjective endpoints. Placebos do not treat the underlying disease, they only alter the symptoms, and not by much. Symptom relief is not a bad thing, as long is it does not violate autonomy, beneficence non-maleficence. Kind of hard to do when the placebo effect is based on lying to the patient.


The JAMA editorial completely ignores the first use of placebo, and ignores the data that placebo has no effect to alter pathophysiology. I suppose it is how you read the literature. Referring to Placebos without deception: a randomized controlled trial in irritable bowel syndrome (blogged about by Dr. Gorski when it came out) that they interpret as


Recent research now challenges the prior beliefs that placebo treatments must be prescribed deceptively in order to work.


Patients were told in the study that


…placebo pills made of an inert substance, like sugar pills, that have been shown in clinical studies to produce significant improvement in IBS symptoms through mind-body self-healing processes (bold mine).


The study included four talking points:


“…1) the placebo effect is powerful, 2) the body can automatically respond to taking placebo pills like Pavlov’s dogs who salivated when they heard a bell, 3) a positive attitude helps but is not necessary, and 4) taking the pills faithfully is critical. ”


That, to my mind, is deceptive, and while I am not surprised that patients reported feeling better, as they often do after a visit with the doctor, it was based on several lies, and the study would violate patient autonomy if applied outside of a clinical study. You tell a patient up front that a positive attitude helps, and you are not surprised when they report doing better. Being in a medical trial will lead to the patient trying to please the researcher, a clinical trial Stockholm syndrome.


I’ll grant you that there are “Two intertwined psychological mechanisms are thought to underlie placebo effects—expectancy and conditioning” and that patients can be manipulated in clinical trials to report feeling better. Placebo effects are neither clinically impressive in their effect nor an ethical for a practicing clinician, but ones man’s ethics is another man belly laugh. Note, the authors start out saying the effects are psychological, and changing psychology will not make your breast cancer remit.


But then, something changes. One moment I see a Victorian woman looking in a mirror, then suddenly I see a skull. Because placebo becomes more than a sugar pill, more than the placeholder for the numerous confounding variables and biases that muddy the waters of a clinical trials. The placebo effect are pleural and are as many as sands in the hour glass.


Neurophysiology and neurochemistry suggest that there are multiple placebo effects, with different neurobiological mechanisms, depending on the organ system and the target illness.


Good. It there are as many placebo effects as there are illness, perhaps I can use it. Failure rates with vancomycin for MRSA hover around 30%. Maybe I can use placebo effects to help, but it never seems to be the case. Infections are recalcitrant to placebo effects. Instead they mention the usual suspects of subjective experience: pain and irritable bowel syndrome. But it turns out that I have been practicing placebo medicine all this time after all. You can elicit the placebo effect by being, well, a good doctor.


Good ways to enhance everyday encounters include inviting and listening carefully to the patient’s story of illness experience, offering a satisfying explanation for the patient’s distress, expressing care and concern, communicating positive expectations for therapeutic benefit, and helping the patient to feel more in control of life in the face of the illness.


Everything you do as a clinician evidently can elicit the placebo effect. Even “rather than advising the patient to get more exercise, a physician can write a prescription for exercise on a prescription pad, thus using ritual in a way designed to elicit a placebo response along with increased adherence.” is a placebo effect. Every interaction becomes the opportunity to elicit a placebo response and I suppose, failing in these characteristics will enhance the nocebo effect.


It is a definition of placebo so broad as to be useless. What isn’t an opportunity to elicit a placebo or nocebo effect? When a definition apparently encompasses everything, it becomes nothing.


Although patient beliefs vary depending on geography, culture, and education, at least some of today’s patients are eager to become active collaborators in mind-body healing practices. Many patients will be relieved to learn that the physician wishes to avoid unnecessary and potentially harmful drugs and wants to maximize the powers of the mind alongside those drugs and other modalities that are well supported by scientific evidence.


Show of hands; how many out there like to prescribe to “unnecessary and potentially harmful drugs”? And the sentence suggests the authors knows that maximizing the powers of the mind is not well supported by scientific evidence.


The patient-physician interaction can be complex and multifaceted. All human interactions can be complex and multifaceted. As health care providers we are trying to influence the patients behavior and attitude in an attempt to heal the patient. In the old days it was called a good bed side manner; as I have said before no different, but more complex, than the salubrious effect one ape has on another when they are groomed. A good bedside manner helps the patient feel better but doesn’t make their brain tumor or liver abscess shrink.


Having a good bedside manner and helping the patient feel better about the psychological/subjective components of their illness has always been part of medicine, although obviously some are better at it than others, and some are more interested than others. You don’t become a pathologist because you like to work with people. A good bedside manner has always helped the patient feel better, there is no mystical underpinnings to the process. It is not “the practitioner has many means to help each person activate the potentially powerful inner pathways that assist healing.”


There’s the leap that drives me nuts: placebo is good for symptom relief, nothing more. Nothing is healed, although I have an old school idea of healing: the process is cured. A healed wound is closed and has a scar, not having less pain. Placebo heals nothing, There are no potentially powerful inner pathways by which placebo heals. At best, when lied to, you will feel better.


But what about low-risk interventions such as acupuncture to treat low back pain? Today, if rigorous clinical trial evidence shows such modalities to be better than no treatment or usual care but no better than placebo, the treatment is often summarily dismissed.


As it should be. If trials show an intervention does nothing, it should not be used. Substitute ‘pharmaceutical medication’ for ‘acupuncture’. Would you still recommend it?


An open question for future research and ethical reflection is whether such modalities can be recommended consistent with informed consent.


Informed consent: Acupuncture does nothing. There are no meridians, there is no chi, and studies are clear acupuncture does nothing to alter your underlying disease. At best you may think your pain is decreased, but the effect is not sustained. Besides having no efficacy, there are the occasional severe and even fatal complications from the procedure and many practitioners are not particularly fastidious with the techniques of infection prevention. It will cost you $100.


Doesn’t take much ethical reflection for me.


Of course virtually all of SCAM, from acupuncture on down the alphabet, does nothing to alter underlying anatomy or physiology. No healing is accomplished. And all SCAM results is placebo: the psychological effect of a lie believed to be beneficial. A good therapeutic relationship with a SCAM provider that is based on a lie is not, in my narrow world, ethical. I am not a means justifies the ends kind of guy.


They go from the well defined effect of placebos for modifying symptoms in clinical trials to every interaction being able to cause placebo effect to placebos can heal. I tend to like clear thought, and these essays are written in no small part to help me clarify my own thoughts on the topics about which I write. When everything is placebo, and somehow the mild decrease in IBS symptoms is translated into a powerful mind-body medicine beyond mild symptom relief, I look in vain for clear thinking. And how understanding how a mild decrease in symptoms heralds a “bridging the long-standing gap between the scientific and humanistic orientations of modern medicine,” I can’t see. I also don’t see the gap in my practice. The gap is not in medicine, but in the variation in providers, not all of whom are proficient or interested in maximizing the doctor-patient relationship.


Give half the data and wildly extrapolate. That is not from Art to Science. That is from molehill to mountain.


Addendum. As I finish this essay, eradicating all the typos and grammatical mistakes for Dr. Gorski’s sake, an interesting study crossed my desk: Adherence to placebo and mortality in the Beta Blocker Evaluation of Survival Trial (BEST), which concluded


Analyses of the BEST trial data support a strong association between adherence to placebo study medication and total mortality. While probably not due to publication bias or simple confounding by healthy lifestyle factors, the underlying explanation for the association remains a mystery.


It takes a while for me to read and digest an new article, my initial take is that being adherent in one sphere of your care probably means you are adherent on other spheres of your care. Being adherent in general leads to to better outcomes, and there are a multiplicity of factors that decrease adherence and worsen outcomes. It is never one intervention that leads to good, or bad, outcomes, but the summation of many small interventions. Adherence to placebo is probably such a marker. I saw no reason to invoke powerful mind-body effects at work.


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Wednesday, January 25, 2012

SOPA and Skepticism

SOPA and Skepticism:

By Aaron Ross Powell

Over at Libertarianism.org I have a new blog post on the lesson the technology community should have learned from their campaign against SOPA.


Imagine you’re an expert in some field of technical knowledge. Your field impacts quite a lot of people but most of them don’t understand the details the way you do. One day, Congress proposes legislation called the Make Things Better Act, which, its sponsors say, will make things better.


But wait. The Act happens to deal with exactly the field you’re knowledgeable about. And you know what? It won’t make things better. In fact, it will make things far, far worse. Not only will it make things worse, but any benefits the legislation does create will accrue exclusively to a small but powerful interest group.


So you and your other technically-minded friends mobilize against the Make Things Better Act and, through coordination and outcry, succeed in killing it. Two days later, Congress proposes another piece of legislation called the It’s Good for the Children Act. Except this time the law deals with an area outside your expertise. If you applied the lesson learned from the Make Things Better Act, you might react to this new proposal with skepticism. After all, when you were in a position to evaluate what Congress was really up to, you discovered that it wasn’t working in the interests of the American public but, instead, of a tiny and powerful minority. Couldn’t it be possible the new bill is just be more of the same?


Most likely, though, based on the way people typically react in these situations, you won’t apply that lesson. Instead you’ll say, “Boy this new law is great because my favored political party wrote it and, well, it’s good for the children.”


Read the rest here.


SOPA and Skepticism is a post from Cato @ Liberty - Cato Institute Blog




The State of the Union on Stossel

The State of the Union on Stossel:

By David Boaz

Here’s an edited version of last night’s special “Stossel” show following the State of the Union Address. Our Cato tape editors have cut right to my opening one-one-one with Stossel, wherein I talk about Obama’s “blueprint” for America and my suggestion for a bumper sticker reading YES YOU DID. Later Matt Welch, Megan McArdle, and Gov. Gary Johnson join the discussion and take on issue of taxes, Iraq, the looming but mostly ignored entitlements crisis, outsourcing, and the president’s audacious claim that his $50 billion bailout of GM and Chrysler had been a good deal. Skip the commercials, watch it here:



The State of the Union on Stossel is a post from Cato @ Liberty - Cato Institute Blog




Monday, January 23, 2012

Abortion, Roe v. Wade, Ron Paul, & Libertarians

Abortion, Roe v. Wade, Ron Paul, & Libertarians:

Roe v. Wade, the 1973 Supreme
Court ruling that legalized abortion, turns 39 today.



Rick Santorum writes in the Wall Street Journal
why he's
against abortion: "I know life begins at conception.... The right
to life is the first right. Without its protection, no other rights
matter." He also goes on about how President Obama and his GOP
rivals fail to protect the unborn as much as he does.


Rep. Diana DeGette (D-Colo.), author of "the Bubble Bill" that
created a zone protecting abortion facilities from protesters,

writes in HuffPo
why she's for abortion rights: "I fight to
protect a woman's right to choose largely grounded in my Western
values of personal freedom and common sense."


Back in 2008, "Jane Roe" (a.k.a. Norma McCorvey) came
out for Ron Paul:



I support Ron Paul for president because we share the same goal,
that of overturning Roe v Wade. Ron Paul doesn’t just
talk about being pro-life, he acts on it. His voting record truly
is impeccable and he undoubtedly understands our constitutional
republic and the inalienable right to life for all. Ron Paul is the
prime author of H.R. 300, which would negate the effect of Roe v.
Wade. As the signor of the affidavit that legalized abortion 35
years ago I appreciate Ron Paul’s action to restore protection for
the unborn. Ron Paul has also authored H.R. 1094 in Congress, which
seeks to define life as beginning at conception. He has never
wavered on the issue of being pro-life and has a voting record to
prove it. He understands the importance of civil liberties for all,
including the unborn.



In 2006, Ronald Bailey wrote about why abortion will never be
fully outlawed again:



Most Americans believe that abortion is wrong,
but they also believe that it would be more immoral for the
government to interfere with their fellow citizens' private
reproductive decisions. If the Supreme Court dared to
overturn Roe v. Wade, there would be political hell
to pay. However, because most Americans remain ambiguously
uncomfortable with abortion, our political institutions will
fitfully continue to try to narrow the scope of the decision.
Nevertheless, the central holding that a woman can choose abortion
in the first three months of a pregnancy will not be overturned.
Ultimately, our politicians realize that Americans want
the Roe v. Wade escape hatch to be kept open
just in case they or their loved ones have to make the hard
decision to use it themselves.



In 2004, Bailey asked, "Is
Heaven Populated Chiefly By the Souls of Embryos?
", writing
"Bioconservatives...do not advocate the rescue of naturally
conceived unimplanted embryos. But why not? In right-to-life terms,
normal unimplanted embryos are the moral equivalents of a
30-year-old mother of three children."


Last November, Judge Andrew Napolitano
told me why he thinks abortion is murder
: "I believe - and it
is a question of science and of faith - that a fertilized egg is a
human being." (Go to 9.40 in the interview video).


Last year, as part of our Ask a Libertarian series we did to
celebrate the publication of The Declaration of Independents, we
tackled the question, "What's the libertarian position on
abortion?":







Reason on
abortion.




Rocket Men

Rocket Men:

Lots of kids go through an astronaut phase,
usually sometime between fireman and president of the United
States. For the last three generations of American children
dreaming of slipping the surly bonds of Earth, the only game in the
galaxy has been a federal agency: the National Aeronautics and
Space Administration (NASA). But since NASA’s space shuttle program
shuddered to a stop in July 2011 with the final flight of the
Atlantis, those kids—and the adults they have become—have
been forced to look outside of government for liftoff.


As luck would have it, there are quite a few men (and they are
virtually all men) who would be more than happy to help. These
21st-century pioneers want to make spaceflight affordable,
accessible, and commonplace, making a buck off your childhood
fantasies in the process. They can’t offer the moon, yet. But they
can supply various modes of travel and ways to achieve the
astronaut experience, with or without Tang and freeze-dried ice
cream.


For decades space enthusiasts and libertarian dreamers have
imagined a future where robust competition replaces top-down
bureaucracy in the provision of extra-atmospheric travel.
reason has sketched this post-NASA vision in
feature stories ranging from “Getting Off the Ground” (November
1981) to “Martian Chronicle” (February 1999) to “Space Travel for
Fun and Profit” (January 2007). But thanks to a convergence of
technological development, regulatory breathing room, and budgetary
austerity (see “A Twinkle of Hope” on page 20), that future is
now.


Meet the folks who are working to get you and your inner child
off terra firma and into the great beyond.


The Daredevil: Elon Musk


After SpaceX executed a nearly flawless launch and recovery of
its Dragon capsule in December 2010, the company’s CEO and founder,
Elon Musk, had only one regret—that there wasn’t anyone on board.
“If there were people sitting in the Dragon capsule today,” he said
at a post-launch press conference, “they would have had a very nice
ride.”


The Dragon voyage was the first time a commercial space vehicle
had made it into orbit and back—a major milestone for the industry.
For now the splashy success locks in Musk as the leader of a
surprisingly large pack of space entrepreneurs who are looking to
fill the gap left by NASA’s decommissioned shuttle.


Musk, a Stanford grad school dropout who was born in South
Africa, made his fortune—estimated at $670 million—as one of the
founders of the online payment site PayPal. Then he founded Tesla
Motors, where he led development of an all-electric sports
car.


After the space shuttles were retired, NASA was forced to start
paying Russians to ferry Americans and their gear back and forth to
the International Space Station, at about $63 million per seat.
Musk says SpaceX can do it for one-third the price. The added risk
of throwing humans—or as Musk refers to them, “biological
cargo”—doesn’t seem to worry him.


There are plenty of details to be worked out as NASA hands over
some of its traditional responsibilities to private industry.
Musk’s famously prickly personality has been on display throughout
the negotiations. In late October, he was one of several
representatives from commercial space firms who appeared before the
House Committee on Science, Space, and Technology to complain about
the terms of a contract with NASA to provide taxi services between
Earth and the International Space Station. NASA, it seems, is
having trouble letting go. Displeased with how the hearing went,
Musk says Space X “may not bid” for the crew-carrying contract
after all. Although it has inked deals to move cargo for NASA,
SpaceX is always careful to emphasize that it has a $1 billion
roster of private clients in case the government deals don’t pan
out.


NASA doesn’t have the agility or the drive of the modern space
industry, so it needs SpaceX and its ilk more than the reverse. An
August NASA study found that SpaceX spent a total of $443 million
developing the Falcon 9 rocket and launch vehicle that bore the
Dragon capsule aloft. If NASA had undertaken the same project, the
study found, the bill would have come in closer to $1.4
billion.


The Mogul: Richard Branson


Virgin Group Chairman Richard Branson isn’t a rocket scientist,
but he knows a good publicity stunt when he sees it. The Ansari X
Prize, which offered $10 million in private money for the first
nongovernmental organization to launch a reusable manned spacecraft
twice in a two-week period, brought a burst of public attention to
the commercial space race in 2004. Branson quickly snapped up the
rights to the winning vehicle, SpaceShipOne, and the team that went
with it, including famous aviation whiz Burt Rutan.


Since then Virgin has been working on SpaceShipTwo, which would
carry two pilots and six passengers a few miles above the Karman
line (the generally accepted threshold 62 miles up that separates
Earth’s atmosphere from outer space) to check out the view and
enjoy a brief period of weightlessness. Charging $200,000 per
person (with a $20,000 deposit, please) Virgin Galactic already has
450 people signed up to fly as soon as the technology is ready and
the regulatory hurdles have been cleared.


The project has had setbacks; as with many other
competitors in the arena, the official start of Virgin’s routine
manned flights always seems to be two years away. But Branson is a
tireless promoter, and Virgin Galactic has stayed in (and on top
of) the news with a steady trickle of publicity stills, mockups,
vehicle christenings, and other photo ops.


In August, NASA announced that it would be purchasing a full
suborbital flight from Virgin, with an option for two more, to
carry research payloads as part of the Flight Opportunities
Program, a government initiative designed to “foster the
development of the commercial reusable suborbital transportation
industry.” The price for those three flights is a bargain at $4.5
million, about 1 percent of the cost of a single (orbital, to be
fair) shuttle mission. Virgin was just one of seven companies to
cut similar deals with NASA, but as is his wont, Branson grabbed
the headlines.


In October the serial entrepreneur was on hand to open Spaceport
America, the mostly taxpayer-funded New Mexico spaceport that
Virgin Galactic now calls home. At a press conference Branson was
characteristically optimistic, saying, “We’re ticking the final
boxes on the way to space.”


The Dark Horse: Jeff Greason


XCOR founder Jeff Greason is onstage, flicking through a
PowerPoint presentation and looking as slick as a mustachioed
rocket engineer in a sports coat can, when suddenly he chokes up.
Greason has just gotten to the part of his spiel where he tells the
story about a conversation with his son. “Daddy,” the kid asks, “is
it really true that they used to fly to the moon when you were a
boy?” (Quick reference guide for those born after 1972: It
is.)


But Greason isn’t powered by nostalgia for the days of Apollo.
Quite the opposite: He is a creature of the new space industry. He
left a job at Intel to get into rocketry and thence into business
for himself.


“The technology that we’re missing is capitalism,” Greason says
later during the same presentation, given at an April TEDx
conference in San Jose. “The same thing that makes things work in
every other arena of modern life.”


In an interview with Senior Editor Brian Doherty, Greason
expanded on that theme: “I’m confident we can develop a profitable
market in suborbital spaceflight without the government’s
beneficial influences—of course we have to continue to ensure they
don’t become a regulatory obstacle, and right now they’re not.”
(Read more about their conversation in “Space on Earth” on page
60.)


Insiders see XCOR as an underrated rival to flashy players like
Branson and Musk. XCOR has taken a gradualist approach, flying a
succession of small but ever-larger rockets, including the aptly
named EZ-Rocket. The current Lynx model is a two-seater that allows
horizontal takeoff and landing but only goes up 38 miles, leaving
the goal of outer space for the next generation rocket. But that
distinction may not matter if Greason becomes the first
entrepreneur to fly a paying customer on a rocket he built himself.
At $95,000 for the Lynx’s single passenger seat, this small company
is also offering the cheapest ticket on the market.


The Prize Giver: Peter Diamandis


Peter Diamandis is the chairman and CEO of the X Prize
Foundation, the nonprofit organization that dreamed up the Ansari X
Prize—$10 million for a reusable suborbital launch vehicle—and is
now offering prizes for everything from better oil spill management
technology to rapid sequencing of human genomes. Richard Branson
snagged the first winner, SpaceShipOne, to form the basis of Virgin
Galactic’s program. But just as important, from Diamandis’
perspective, were the 25 losers. Collectively, the teams spent more
than $100 million in pursuit of the prize. And that was precisely
the idea.


Diamandis says he hatched his plan while reading about the early
days of commercial aviation, particularly a prize offered in 1919
by the New York–based Frenchman Raymond Orteig for the first
nonstop flight to Paris from the Big Apple. Diamandis told
reason.tv in April 2010 that the $25,000 Orteig
Prize “was ultimately what motivated Lindbergh to cross the
Atlantic in 1927, and it’s what ultimately motivated me to create
the X Prize.” His hope was not only to draw talented technicians
into the ring—mission accomplished—but also to gin up customers for
a new industry. The 18-month period around the date that Lindbergh
flew saw an increase in air passengers from 6,000 to 180,000. “A
30-fold increase in the amount of passenger travel because of this
dramatic demonstration of Lindbergh, this young aeronaut!”
Diamandis enthuses.


Diamandis is also the chairman of Singularity University, which
aims to “understand and facilitate the development of exponentially
advancing technologies to address humanity’s challenges”; the CEO
of Zero Gravity Corporation,
which lets the public experience weightlessness during parabolic
flight; and a founder of Space Adventures, which books
flights for tourists to the International Space Station.


The Passenger: Charles Simonyi


Charles Simonyi should be famous for his role as the primary
developer of Microsoft Word and Excel. Or maybe for dating Martha
Stewart. But if you know his name at all, you likely know him as
the private citizen who bought himself a ride to the International
Space Station. Twice.


Both times Simonyi paid Space Adventures to set up the jaunt.
Simonyi entered space on a Russian Soyuz rocket—the only ride a
private buyer can legally hitch for the moment, although that’s
likely to change soon. The billionaire paid $25 million for the
first flight in 2007, taking off from the same launch pad where
cosmonaut Yuri Gagarin kicked the space race into high gear a
half-century ago. The price was undisclosed but higher his second
time around in 2009. The New York Times quoted Simonyi
rationalizing his expenditure like a pro: “The price is going up,”
he said. “This has to be put into perspective, because other means
of getting to space are even more expensive, so this one is
actually quite cost effective at the current state of
technology.”


In addition to brokering deals with the Russians to get
civilians off the launch pad, Space Adventures offers bookings on
flights that take passengers up to enjoy a brief spell of zero
gravity. Its most famous passenger for that service was the
otherwise extremely earthbound theoretical physicist Stephen
Hawking. The company, based in Vienna, Virginia, boasts that its
clients collectively have traveled more than 36 million miles and
spent almost three months in space.


The Hotelier: Robert Bigelow


Robert Bigelow knows hotels. He owns the Budget Suites of
America extended-stay hotel chain here on Earth. But after a long
rocket ride, when you need a place to crash—just figuratively, of
course—Bigelow is your man. His Las Vegas company, Bigelow
Aerospace, has launched two experimental orbiting modules, Genesis
I and Genesis II, into space since its founding in 1996. Bigelow
already has spent well over $200 million of his own money and says
he’s ready to drop another $300 million on his quest to be the
final frontier’s first hotelier and commercial real estate
baron.


Like everyone else in the private space industry, Bigelow says
prices will come down when business picks up. Right now he is
pricing flights at $28.8 million per person for a month-long hotel
stay, travel included. It’s no coincidence that his price is just a
smidge cheaper than Space Adventures’ rumored going rate. Bigelow
is explicit that he’s taking the Budget Suites concept to new
heights: cheap digs where you can hang out as long as you like and
take care of your own business, whatever that may be. Of course,
cheap is a relative term: Putting up two astronauts for
three months in one of Bigelow’s inflatable space habitats will run
you $97.5 million, and that’s on the lower end of his extensive
menu of options. Bigelow hopes some of the more extravagant leases
will appeal to the national governments of wealthy but
nonspacefaring nations as well as research institutions and private
citizens.


Bigelow isn’t just another space entrepreneur, he is also a
client. Cheap, safe rockets are a crucial part of any plan to build
while aloft. It’s big and empty up there, for the most part, so
materials have to come from Earth. Bigelow sent up his test modules
on Russian Dnepr rockets but has made no secret of his desire to
use rockets from an American company for crew and cargo as soon as
they become available.


The Rocketeer: John Carmack


The mascot of John D. Carmack’s rocket company is a cartoon
armadillo wearing goggles and a scarf. It’s an oddly warm and fuzzy
choice for such a nerdy founder. Armadillo Aerospace is the
part-time venture of the lead programmer of Doom,
Quake, and other 3D graphics-intensive video game
megahits.


It’s also the leanest of the companies described here. Before he
started Armadillo Aerospace, Carmack had very little experience in
building spaceships, but his company went on to scoop up a couple
of prizes that NASA was offering for building lunar landers while
simultaneously working on suborbital (and eventually orbital)
rockets. Armadillo’s strategy is physically different from those of
most of its competitors, featuring a rapidly evolving form that
adhered to Carmack’s credo to try out lots of options and abandon
failures quickly—pretty much the opposite of NASA’s modus
operandi.


In August, Carmack caused a small stir by noting in a speech at
a Quake convention that he didn’t consider NASA a “good
value,” suggesting that Armadillo would make a habit of refusing
contracts with the space agency because he doesn’t want to get
stuck running a “small company that does government work.” The
company scrambled to clarify that it was very happy to take NASA’s
money as part of the Flight Opportunities Program, especially since
“we do not have to change anything in our development program to
accommodate what we perceive to be a burgeoning embryonic market.”
Nice work if you can get it.


The Legislator: Dana Rohrabacher


Rep. Dana Rohrabacher (R-Calif.) may be Congress’ only proud
space geek. On the accomplishments section of his official website,
the beach-district congressman lists his work on commercial space
first, boasting in particular about serving as chairman of the
Subcommittee on Space and Aeronautics from 1997 to January 2005,
“having been given a two-year waiver to serve beyond the normal
six-year term limit,” and helping enact the Commercial Space Launch
Amendments Act, which sheltered start-up commercial space companies
from overly burdensome regulation. He has also pushed the Zero
Gravity, Zero Tax Act, which would protect “space-related income”
from taxation and offer tax credits to investors in some types of
space companies.


A former Reagan speechwriter and co-sponsor of an amendment to
prohibit the Department of Justice from interfering with the
implementation of state medical marijuana laws, Rohrabacher is
California all the way. Perhaps because of that, he is not afraid
to say what he thinks. He told SpaceNews in October that
“NASA does not have the best track record with keeping the actual
costs of programs low.” By contrast, he said, “commercial-based
solutions generate more launches, spreading out fixed costs,
creating efficiencies and improving reliability.” As
Atlantis prepared for its final launch in July,
Rohrabacher took to The Hill to argue that “we will only
lose America’s leadership in human spaceflight if we prevent the
free market from pursuing multiple, independent launchers and
vehicles.”


The Regulator: George Nield


“Soon the government will play a less important role in space,
and I’m pretty excited about it.” At first glance, that’s an odd
thing for George Nield to say. As the associate administrator for
commercial space transportation at the Federal Aviation
Administration (FAA), Nield is the guy whom owners and operators of
commercial space vehicles go to when they need permission to do
something—including things that are currently prohibited.


Nield’s role at the FAA is twofold: He is charged with ensuring
public safety but also with promoting the fledgling commercial
space transportation industry. “Frankly, I think it’s fair to say
that we are not your typical regulatory bureaucracy,” he says.
“We’re not just going to say no and kick back the applications and
see if somebody brings up a better rocket. We really want industry
to succeed.”


Nield, an Air Force and NASA veteran, implemented Rep.
Rohrabacher’s Commercial Space Launch Amendments Act, crafting a
policy that treats space adventurers more like scuba divers or
paragliders than airline passengers. The participants have to be
adequately briefed on the risk involved, but if they give their
consent the government gives its blessing and focuses on protecting
bystanders from harm.


Nield sees the same silver lining for his pet industry that many
entrepreneurs have spotted in the current budget crunch. “The
government agencies are dependent on what the private industry is
coming up with,” he says. “It won’t be the government that decides
how many launches we’re going to have. It will be industry, based
on the customers they have.” Pretty exciting indeed.


Katherine Mangu-Ward is
managing editor of
reason.










Monday, January 16, 2012

I Was (Almost) a Teenage Mormon

I Was (Almost) a Teenage Mormon:

Mitt Romney and Jon Huntsman have brought Mormons into the
spotlight, and other Americans may be a bit intimidated at what
they see. Judging from these guys and their families, you might
conclude that all Mormons are wealthy, upstanding, accomplished,
worldly and very nice-looking.


In fact, they're enough to make you wonder why we put up with
non-Mormon politicians—who often bring with them boorish behavior,
sexual improprieties, financial misdeeds, heavy drinking, foul
language and messy families. Not to mention that they are rarely as
photogenic as the Huntsmans and the Romneys.


To many Americans, this campaign has been an introduction to a
faith that most of them know little about. To me, it's been a trip
down memory lane. You see, in my younger days, I almost became a
Mormon.


When I was just out of high school, I was smitten with a girl.
She was smart, engaging and, yes, easy on the eyes, and she was a
member of the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints (LDS). I
knew nothing about it, but I was willing to learn.


Shortly before going off to college, I spent a weekend with her
handsome, high-achieving family at their house in Lubbock, Texas.
It was a revelation. I learned that Mormons abstain from alcohol,
tobacco, and coffee, donate 10 percent of their earnings to the
church, fast one day a month, place a high priority on family, and
center their lives on their religious community.


I also found that they are extremely welcoming to outsiders.
This is partly because Mormons put great importance on being nice.
It's also because they are keen on making converts.


Very keen. Within days of arriving on my new college campus, on
the other side of the country, I got a visit from some LDS
missionaries—two earnest young men who persuaded me to begin weekly
private classes to learn about their creed.


They gave me a copy of The Book of Mormon
and I read some of it. I went to Sunday school and church each
week, and I hung out with college classmates who were LDS.


After a few weeks, my missionaries decided it was time to
schedule my baptism. Taken aback, I told them I wasn't quite ready.
And after much agonizing, I decided I was never going to be
ready—even though it meant a certain fetching female was going to
be permanently off-limits.


Why did I walk away? Some of the stories in
The Book of Mormon were too hard to believe.
I found the church's orthodoxy intellectually stifling. I felt I
didn't know enough about my own Presbyterian faith to abandon it. I
lacked the certitude for such a big step.


Mormons regard themselves as Christians, and I don't disagree.
But theirs is a drastically different type of Christianity.
Becoming a Mormon is not like becoming a Methodist.


If I had joined, my life might have been very different. Or
maybe not. The church is proud of being one of the fastest-growing
religions in the world, a credit to its tireless missionary
efforts. Only later did I find out that a lot of people who convert
eventually fall away.


Once I made my choice, I noticed that all my new Mormon friends
were suddenly scarce. But I was glad for the experience. It gave me
a view of another way of life that most people don't get. It left
me feeling I had a rudimentary understanding of Latter-day
Saints.


I also got one joke out of it. It seems the pope is meeting with
his cardinals in the Vatican when he's called out to take a phone
call. He returns to announce, "I have good news and bad news. The
good news is that our Lord and Savior Jesus Christ has come again
to establish his kingdom on earth." The bad news? "He was calling
from Salt Lake City."


And that girl? We parted on amicable but sorrowful terms, and I
haven't seen her since. Twenty years later, she had a layover at
O'Hare and phoned to say hello. We spent a pleasant 15 minutes
catching up and promising to get together with our spouses and kids
sometime.


A couple of days later, my doorbell rang. Two earnest young
missionaries were standing on my doorstep.


That's one thing you should know about Mormons. They're
persistent.


COPYRIGHT 2011 CREATORS.COM

Is E85 Dead Now?

Is E85 Dead Now?:



twdorris writes "With a stoichiometric ratio far lower than that of gasoline (much lower than the price difference), buying the E85 ethanol fuel blend instead of gasoline was already hard to justify. Unless you raced your car on a track where E85 provided a great alternative to race fuel, it really didn't make financial sense. And there are other reasons not to buy E85, too. Like the impact corn-based ethanol is having on food prices or the questionable emissions results (PDF). So, now that the ethanol subsidies provided by the U.S. federal government are scheduled to end this summer, it's going to be even harder to justify E85 (at least in the U.S.). This change will basically make a gallon of E85 cost the same or slightly more than gasoline. With so many things working against it, are the days numbered for readily available E85 at your local gas station? And should it have ever even been made available to begin with? How much did all that government-backed R&D and tax credits cost us for something that was pretty clearly questionable to begin with?"





Read more of this story at Slashdot.

Single Crystal Superalloys

Single Crystal Superalloys:


On Friday, I wrote about the development of amorphous or “glassy” metal alloys, in which the atoms are packed together with no regular crystal structure. At the microscopic level, almost all metals are made of crystal grains, which can be bigger or smaller depending on how the metal has been heat treated. Amorphous alloys, recall, are extremely unusual among metals because they can be cast without forming crystal grains at all.


At the opposite end of the spectrum are single crystal (SC or SX) alloys, which are mixtures of metals that can be cast in such a way that the entire object is essentially a single giant “grain,” i.e. one continuous crystal. Among minerals like quartz, large objects composed of a single crystal are fairly common; you also may have seen the large ingots of artificially-grown single-crystal silicon, known as “boules,” from which wafers are cut to make microchips and other semiconductor devices.




But when it comes to metals, single-crystal objects are outside of most people’s experience. Forming single-crystal metal objects requires both special alloys and special casting techniques. The alloys are almost always nickel-based, with as many as nine minor metal components including five or more percent chromium, cobalt, tungsten, tantalum, aluminum, and/or rhenium. The casting method is known as “directional solidification,” and involves carefully cooling a cast metal part starting at one end to guarantee a particular orientation of its crystal structure. That orientation is chosen, naturally, based on expected stresses in the finished part.



The primary application for single crystal superalloys is the manufacture of jet engine turbine blades, which must endure tremendous forces at extremely high temperatures for prolonged periods of time. Under such conditions, metals with a grain structure tend to “creep,” or slowly deform, along grain boundaries. Because single-crystal alloy parts have no grain boundaries, however, they are highly resistant to this kind of wear.


If you’re interested in reading more, check out the excellent online primer on nickel-based superalloy technology maintained by The University of Cambridge’s Dr. Harry Bhadeshia.